NZDUSD recently broke past a descending trend line visible on its 4-hour and daily time frames, signaling that an uptrend is due. Price zoomed past the .7300 mark before showing signs of a correction, and applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken trend line and the .7100 major psychological support.

The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside for now. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so a downward crossover might be imminent. In that case, more sellers could get in the game and increase downside pressure.

Stochastic is heading south, which means that sellers are in control of NZDUSD price action for now. The oscillator is dipping into the oversold region and might turn higher soon, drawing buyers back to the mix and causing a bounce off the area of interest.

The RBNZ was slightly more dovish than expected in their latest interest rate statement, as they pushed back their projected date for achieving 2% inflation by a couple of quarters. This signals that the central bank could still be open to additional rate cuts in order to shore up price levels if needed.

In contrast, geopolitical tensions seem to have subsided as the Trump administration had a productive meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Abe. US equities are also climbing to new highs on Trump’s tax reform plans, which he plans on announcing sometime in the next two to three weeks.

Recall that Trump has talked about lowering the corporate tax rate and deregulating the financial sector, both of which are likely to mean strong gains for corporate America and the overall US economy. More details on these plans could remind traders that the Fed is looking to tighten monetary policy in order to keep growth under control so March rate hike hopes could continue propping the dollar up

One thought on “NZDUSD Broken Trend Line (Feb 13, 2017)”

  1. H Skip Robinson says:

    Looks like at least three reasons to go long and two reason to possibly go short. You could go Long over the short term and prepare to Short long term on weekly swings. The DXY gapped bullish over the weekend and has already closed the gap heading south again. With some short term signs of dollar weakness, the chart setup is useful. Good find.

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