Though WTI has been in a bullish move lately, in my opinion it is overdone and according to my fundamental analysis, seasonality weakness in oil is not over yet, so for the short term I am still fundamentally bearish on Oil, but cautiously.

Weekly open is around 64 which is around W-M3 and current MN-PP. The only thing to be done or can be done here is to sell. Buying here would not be so prudent and bulls are waiting at around 62.6 which is around W-pp. Therefore in my opinion it is safe enough to take a short trade (and hope for the best), of which I will quickly shift to breakeven once the trade is sufficiently profitably safe.

Entry: 63.51
Stop Loss: 63.85
1st Target: 60.63
2nd Target: 59.67

All the best. Happy Trading.

OIL

2 thoughts on “WTI Short Trade – 26-Feb-2018”

  1. Shah A says:

    Managed to move stop loss above next level of resistance at 64.4 before the recent attempted rally. Currently remaining stop loss level at that level. Not moving to breakeven just yet to give some leeway.
    First target: 60.68 (near w-m1 and major support)
    Second target: 59.67 (w-s2)

  2. Shah A says:

    Oil prices extended declines on Thursday after official data showed a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories and a surprise build in gasoline stocks. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels last week, compared with analyst expectations for a build of 2.1 million barrels, weekly data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. Gasoline stocks also rose by 2.5 million barrels against expectations for a 190,000-barrel drop, which pushed gasoline futures sharply lower. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 709,000-barrel drop. U.S. crude oil production rose to a record 10.057 million barrels per day (bpd) in November and retreated slightly in December to 9.949 million bpd, the EIA said on Wednesday. OPEC oil output fell in February to a 10-month low as the United Arab Emirates joined other Gulf members in over-delivering on a supply reduction pact, a Reuters survey found on Wednesday, pushing compliance with the deal to its highest at 149 percent. – Reuters

    The bigger than expected build in US crude inventories and gasoline stocks pressured oil prices. However it is noteworthy that during the US Session, prices attempted to pare losses, possibly due to data showing slight drop in US production in December and reports on lower OPEC oil production output and high compliance in the supply reduction pact.

    Looking forward, in my opinion, I expect oil prices to remain pressured for the short term due to seasonality weakness according to my analysis, however, will remain cautious as sentiment may shift on any bullish news or reports.

    For the current open short trade at 63.51, price has dropped significantly to shift stop loss to breakeven price.
    First target : 60.70 to 60.68 (near w-m1 and major support)
    Second target : 59.66 to 59.67 (w-s2)

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