Greetings Traders.

Fundamental Bias: Bullish
1. Global Growth momentum still intact, projected to be higher, leading to higher demand for commodities.
2. Tightening global oil inventories supply, coupled with increasing demand.
3. Higher or steady US crude inventories drawdowns according to seasonality analysis and end of refinery maintenance season.

Risk(s) to bias:
1. Profit taking
2. Global risk off sentiment
3. Geo-political shock

Technical Bias: Bullish ; High Bearish risk
Price finished the week slightly higher than the open, almost formed a bearish weekly candletick reversal pattern. Price has reached monthly pivot target M4, and as expected has retraced. Though technical and momentum indicators indicate a bullish technnical bias, bearish reversal risks are high.

Entry Strategy:
Due to my fundamental bias and prevailing bullish trend, I will still be looking for the marked blue support levels to hold for a Long entry for a short-term weekly swing. However, due to high bearish reversal risks, having reached monthly target and weekly and daily resistance levels, it is important to be cautious and patient and wait for the blue areas of support to hold as support with higher lows, bullish reversal patterns and/or oversold conditions on lower time frames, for a Long entry.

First long entry zone would be at W-PP which is the most ideal zone in my opinion, second less ideal long entry zone would be at W-M2. If these 2 levels of support fails, the long entry strategy will be invalidated.

Entry Zone 1: 67.55 (W-PP; Fib Retr 50 level)
Entry Zone 2: 67.00 (W-M2; Fib Retr 61.8 level)
SL: 66.2
TP Zone 1: 70.7 (W-M4; Fib Ext 127)
TP Zone 2: 71.7 (W-R2; Fib Ext 150)


3 thoughts on “WTI Long Trade – For Week 23-Apr to 27-Apr 18”

  1. Shah Ally says:

    Price held above w-m2 as support and edged higher, currently testing mn-m4 and w-m3 resistance. Price has to break and hold above mn-m4 and w-m3 as resistance to remain bullish.

    Long entry entered at around Monday’s low slightly above entry zone 2 at 67.30.
    Stop loss shifted to below sup below w-m2 at 66.5.
    1st Target Zone 1: 70.7
    2nd Target Zone 2: 71.7

  2. Shah Ally says:

    Oil prices dipped yesterday largely due to risk of selling following the sell of in equities. Almost took out my long entry, however I am still holding it open while having my stop loss at slightly below breakeven.

    Entry: 67.30
    Stop Loss: 67.20
    1st Target Zone 1: 70.70
    2nd Target Zone 2: 71.70

  3. Shah Ally says:

    Prices dropped after EIA report of higher crude oil and gasoline inventories. Price drop hit my stop loss level to take me out for a small loss. Bullish trade strategy for the week invalidated, though bearish drop was limited and smaller than expected, at point of writing. Will reassess for next month’s and next week’s trade strategy.

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