Fundamental Bias: Bullish
1. Global Growth momentum still intact, projected to be higher, leading to higher demand for commodities.
2. Tightening global oil inventories supply, coupled with increasing demand.
3. Higher or steady US crude inventories drawdowns according to seasonality analysis and end of refinery maintenance season.
Risk(s) to bias:
1. Profit taking
2. Global risk off sentiment
3. Geo-political shock
Technical Bias: Bullish ; High Bearish risk
Price finished the week slightly higher than the open, almost formed a bearish weekly candletick reversal pattern. Price has reached monthly pivot target M4, and as expected has retraced. Though technical and momentum indicators indicate a bullish technnical bias, bearish reversal risks are high.
Due to my fundamental bias and prevailing bullish trend, I will still be looking for the marked blue support levels to hold for a Long entry for a short-term weekly swing. However, due to high bearish reversal risks, having reached monthly target and weekly and daily resistance levels, it is important to be cautious and patient and wait for the blue areas of support to hold as support with higher lows, bullish reversal patterns and/or oversold conditions on lower time frames, for a Long entry.
First long entry zone would be at W-PP which is the most ideal zone in my opinion, second less ideal long entry zone would be at W-M2. If these 2 levels of support fails, the long entry strategy will be invalidated.
Entry Zone 1: 67.55 (W-PP; Fib Retr 50 level)
Entry Zone 2: 67.00 (W-M2; Fib Retr 61.8 level)
TP Zone 1: 70.7 (W-M4; Fib Ext 127)
TP Zone 2: 71.7 (W-R2; Fib Ext 150)