Summary
– Since the release of the planned OPEC production cut, oil rallied for three straight weeks and broke the $50 per barrel level with profit taking on Friday seeing price sitting at $49.49 per barrel.
– Details of how the cut would be implemented are yet to be agreed on and will only take place at the next Opec meeting on 30 November
– Informal meeting taking place with non-Opec members from Oct 9 – 13 to discuss how to implement such a deal
– Meanwhile in the news: BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi has called on local and foreign companies operating in Iraq to continue increasing oil and natural gas output in 2017, the oil ministry said in a statement released on Sunday. Source Investing.com
– Strong sellers above $50. Price may struggle to remain above $50 until the terms of the agreement for the oil cut have been settled. Bottom of the range identified at $43 per barrel.
– Interesting that we see these comments coming out of Iraq at this strong level of resistance – possible attempt to drive oil prices down and prevent price from breaking $50 out of concern over US frackers?

Immediate support seen at $49 per barrel. Keeping an eye on $47 and $46 per barrel. Will also pay attention to how the market responds to the latest news out of Baghdad. Daily extremely overbought.

Eyeing $49 for a higher low though with the latest news out of Baghdad we could see profit taking. Eyeing out $47 as it coincides with the fib zone though if the market sees the latest news as confirmation that an agreement is not likely we could fall to the bottom of the range at $43.

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