This trading week will
be a very important session fundamentally considering that all the major
central banks will be convening to decide their interest rates beginning with
the Feds on Wednesday and the BoE and CHF Libor rates on Thursday. All this
will be at the back drop of Brexit votes which got investors and traders alike
really risk aversive and willing to gauge on situations up until the votes are
cast. We also saw that despite all the hype going on about China, things are not
improving as expected and industrial productions plunged back to 6.0% against
6.1%e with yearly retail sales retracting back to 10% against last year’s 10.1%.
We expect the kiwi, in spite of the bad news about china to continue with the rise
and any break above last week’s high will signal a continuation in trend with
our target being in the 0.72 price level.
Let’s have a look at
Daily Chart Analysis
So long as price don’t retrace
back strongly and break below the 0.7 mark, we shall continue to hold our longs
and brace ourselves for price to make higher highs. So far, the yearly 50% Fibonacci
level is our support level though we shall also look at the behavior of the candlesticks
in relation to the BB, which at the moment is indicating an overstretched price
with 95% of Friday’s candlestick forming and closing above the upper BB. We are
also seeing a reversing stochastics from the overbought regions, so we shall
have to wait and see where price will close today-if it does close above the
current levels then we shall continue with our longs.
4HR Chart Analysis
To begin with there is
a formation of a double bar reversal pattern once price hit the 38.2% Fibonacci
level-drawn from last week’s Hi-Lo indicating that price will trend higher with
our next target being the 0.725 which is the 161.8 Fibonacci extension level.
15 minute chart
Price action in this timeframe
seems to be consolidating around Friday’s lows with the 50% Yearly Fibonacci level
acting as our resistance at-least in the past couple of hours-however it has
since been broken convincingly at the beginning of the European session. If anything,
price might retrace back to Friday’s high or at the 23.6 Fibonacci level. If
there is an early reversal at the 62.8 Fibonacci level with proper indicator combination
at the overbought region then initiate a short and move with the daily trend.
Otherwise have a pipful
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About The Forex Analyst
I have been trading Forex and commodities for the past 3 years. [email protected] for further discussions.