Most people probably don’t look at the Yearly pivots and weekly candles/ time frame very often, but this one is interesting. Here you can see a bottom formation going into 2017. How strong can the Euro actually be? After this weeks ECB announcement about not changing anything in their monetary policy, QE program and keeping negative ir; I feel like this move at this point is just people milking the trend and profits of the Euro strength trade. There is more going on here that meets the eye. The ECB did state it would like to “taper” QE stimulus but made no comments on what that exactly means other than the exchange rate “requires monitoring”. The strength in the EURO this year means European exports are expensive to the rest of the world. Especially in the US and China, where European exporters biggest clients are. A higher Euro equals fewer goods sold abroad, stagnate growth and prolonged stimulus from the ECB. Atleast imports are cheap for Europeans! This effects inflation terribly for the ECB- still in negative territory and no real measures of expansionary monetary policy insight.
All in all, I see a top forming around this 1.20 mark with in the month (Sept-Oct) and the current price the pair is trading at is strictly market driven, not driven by actual policy. For now, I will be looking to short the EURUSD going into the fourth quarter. Awaiting for signs from the FED to start unloading the balance sheet and possible rate rise in Dec. If anything expect a retracement on the pair going into 2018 and waiting word from the central banks to pull the trigger on the move.


5 thoughts on “Where’s the Top? Annual EURUSD”

  1. Emilio Coppola says:

    Thank Peter for doing the work and providing us your trade plan

    1. Peter Ward says:

      Your Welcome Emilio 🙂

  2. Maryna says:

    Hi Peter, you don’t even need Pivots to analyze charts as the Dollar Index Weekly and Monthly charts clearly pointed to bearishness and I posted an US election plan before the election commenting that the pair was going to turn bearish from December, but few believed me at the time! The charts tell us such great stories, yet traders rely totally on indicators?
    Look at your EURUSD Monthly chart and you will see it’s now at a resistance zone and you don’t need indicators to tell you this.

    I’m not trying to “pick” on you, but your post just got me thinking and questioning the use of Pivots (or any other indicators) when the charts clearly tells us such great stories. I also find it strange that so many courses are sold in Forex on the use of indicators as strategies, yet so few courses on how to actually analyze charts! Once you can analyze a “naked/clear”chart to perfection you can add indicators if you want, but to use indicators without being able to analyze charts properly makes no sense. I’ve seen Wayne use clear charts on occasion and he is brilliant in analyzing clear charts, so why the need for Pivots etc? Just for interest I’m attaching the Dollar Index Weekly chart.
    Just a thought!

    1. Peter Ward says:

      Thanks I guess. But if you read my post it was more about what the ECB and FED are doing. The chart was just a visual cue. Plus if you were to would see my actual charts I trade, you would see pivots (weekly, monthly), S&R zones, major Fib levels, trendlines, round price levels, 6 MAs and a stochs/rsi. All of which looks like a mess and all have different uses for entry and exits. The chart referenced in my post is just something that I found interesting based on the historic levels and the monthly pivots.

  3. Maryna says:

    Sorry, forgot to add that I specially used FIBS in the chart knowing how difficult it is for most traders to analyze without indicators, so I hope it helps.

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