– Despite a poorer than expected NFP, Mester confirms Payroll numbers inline with her forecast and that all meetings are live.
– The market is not expecting a rate hike in November though the chance of a hike in December has increased as per Fedwatch Tool.
– All eyes on inflation data releases out of US this week.
– Dollar due for correction with possible profit taking during Asian session though bulls eyeing out MR1 for reloading of long positions.
– Tomorrow is a banking holiday in America, Tokyo, Canada and China. Traders could experience low liquidity as a result. Maybe have a day off?
– Lastly don’t forget the debate between Trump and Clinton tonight
Firday’s NFP Release
– Change in Manufact. Payrolls Sep: -13K (est -4K; rev prev -16K)
– Unemployment Rate Sep: 5.00% (est 4.90%; prev 4.90%)
– Underemployment Rate Sep: 9.70% (prev 9.70%)
– Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Sep: 0.20% (est 0.30%; prev 0.10%)
– Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Sep: 2.60% (est 2.60%; prev 2.40%)
– Average Weekly Hours All Employees Sep: 34.4 (est 34.4; prev 34.3)
– Change in Household Employment Sep: 354.0 (prev 97)
– Labour Force Participation Rate Sep: 62.90% (prev 62.80%)
FED’S MESTER: PAYROLLS CONSISTENT WITH HER FORECAST – CNBC
– Payrolls number was solid
– All meetings on the table
– 60% chance of a 50 – 75 bps rate hike which is up from 55.1 on Thursday and 5.1% chance of a 75 – 100 bps which is down from 8.3% on Thursday.
Tier 2 and 3 US Data Releases for week ahead
Monday: Banking holiday in America
Tuesday: Core CPI (MoM), Core CPI (YoY), CPI (Mom)
Wednesday: Building Permits (Mom), Building Permits (Sep), Housing Starts (MoM), Housing Starts (Sep)
Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct), Philly Fed Employment (Oct), Existing Home Sales (MoM), Existing Home Sales (Sep)