Summary
– Despite a poorer than expected NFP, Mester confirms Payroll numbers inline with her forecast and that all meetings are live.
– The market is not expecting a rate hike in November though the chance of a hike in December has increased as per Fedwatch Tool.
– All eyes on inflation data releases out of US this week.
– Dollar due for correction with possible profit taking during Asian session though bulls eyeing out MR1 for reloading of long positions.
– Tomorrow is a banking holiday in America, Tokyo, Canada and China. Traders could experience low liquidity as a result. Maybe have a day off?
– Lastly don’t forget the debate between Trump and Clinton tonight

Firday’s NFP Release
– Change in Manufact. Payrolls Sep: -13K (est -4K; rev prev -16K)
– Unemployment Rate Sep: 5.00% (est 4.90%; prev 4.90%)
– Underemployment Rate Sep: 9.70% (prev 9.70%)
– Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Sep: 0.20% (est 0.30%; prev 0.10%)
– Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Sep: 2.60% (est 2.60%; prev 2.40%)
– Average Weekly Hours All Employees Sep: 34.4 (est 34.4; prev 34.3)
– Change in Household Employment Sep: 354.0 (prev 97)
– Labour Force Participation Rate Sep: 62.90% (prev 62.80%)
Source www.livesquawk.com

FED’S MESTER: PAYROLLS CONSISTENT WITH HER FORECAST – CNBC
– Payrolls number was solid
– All meetings on the table
Source www.livesquawk.com

Fedwatch Tool
– 60% chance of a 50 – 75 bps rate hike which is up from 55.1 on Thursday and 5.1% chance of a 75 – 100 bps which is down from 8.3% on Thursday.

Tier 2 and 3 US Data Releases for week ahead
Monday: Banking holiday in America
Tuesday: Core CPI (MoM), Core CPI (YoY), CPI (Mom)
Wednesday: Building Permits (Mom), Building Permits (Sep), Housing Starts (MoM), Housing Starts (Sep)
Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct), Philly Fed Employment (Oct), Existing Home Sales (MoM), Existing Home Sales (Sep)

Profit taking after the NFP release saw the USDollar pullback and is currently sitting between MR2 and MM4. Support is identified at MR1, which is in the fib zone and marks role reversal support of the breakout on 6 October.

MR1 coincides with a 61.8% retracement from the swing low last Sunday to the swing high on Friday also marking role reversal support of the breakout on the 6 October. Predicted WPP at current market price.

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