Summary
Dollar continued moving down after the drop towards the end of the NY session last night which means USDollar Bulls have the opportunity of buying a cheaper USDollar at support. New monthly pivot points came out today, the daily analysis below discusses that further. 10Y T Notes bond prices closed slightly lower at the end of trade yesterday. Keep in mind that the bond market in America opens at the same time as the NY stock market which could provide one with some TOD (time of day) trading opportunities – I will provide analysis in the USDollar NY Forecast later today. Fundamentally yesterday we saw positive data out of the personal spending data and what you want to pay attention to is the reason for the result being higher employee compensation. The Chicago PMI was not good at all – there are definitely some concerns around that release and hopes that this is not the start of a downtrend. Percentage chance of a rate hike in December is at 79% at the time of writing this article. Today’s news releases are manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing employment and ISM manufacturing PMI. For today’s news releases please go here Forex.Today News Calendar

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2016 www.bea.gov
– Personal income increased 0.3 percent in September
– Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.3 percent
– Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.5 percent
– Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September
– Real PCE increased 0.3 percent.
– The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.
– The increase in personal income in September primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and nonfarm proprietors’ income
– The increase in real PCE in September primarily reflected an increase in spending for durable goods

October Chicago Business Barometer Down 3.6 Points to 50.6 www.ism-chicago.org
– The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.6 points to a five-month low of 50.6 in October from 54.2 in September, suggesting economic activity in the US lost some momentum having picked up in Q3.

“A key takeaway from the latest survey was the pick-up in Prices Paid to a nearly two-year high. Inflationary pressures are on the rise, which is one of the metrics the Federal Reserve has been waiting for to increase rates. However, economic growth ahead, as read by the October Chicago Business Barometer, looks very disappointing. Hopefully, it doesn’t mark the start of a downward trend,” said Lorena Castellanos, senior economist at MNI Indicators.

Clinton holds five-point lead as FBI looks at more emails: Reuters/Ipsos poll www.reuters.com
Democrat Hillary Clinton held a five percentage point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday, down only slightly since the FBI said last week it was reviewing new emails in its investigation of the former secretary of state.

Dxy Daily

We have new monthly pivot points for November. Price opened just below MM3. Support is eyed at MPP coinciding with role reversal price action of the swing high on the 22 July '16 and the 38.2% fib of the swing low 22 Sep '16 and the swing high 28 Oct '16. The 50% fib coincides with MM2 and the 61.8% fib, just above MS1, coincides with the top of September's range.

Dxy H4

Price came off WM3 yesterday, moved through WPP and is currently just below WM2 with the next level of support eyed just above/ at WS1.

Dxy H1

The 123 pattern setup on the H1 chart yesterday at London was successful in creating a higher high though the 61.8% fib coinciding with yesterday's DM3 provided strong resistance seeing price fall and make a low lower than the bottom of yesterday's 123. Price moved up during Asia though was sold off the H1 21 making a slightly lower low. With price currently at support I would like to see an indication of reversal on H1 - perhaps a 123 - to confirm dollar strength will be returning to the market. Pay attention to your USDollar pairs and identify which of them are at resistance/ support and, if you are a USDollar bull, put a trade plan together.

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