USDJPY pair ended up within the range with little volatility.

However, I feel like the down side space is now limited.

Looking at Weekly Ichimoku, the top of the cloud is just below the candle, and eventually the cloud is getting higher. As a result of that, I am expecting the price will eventually go up within 4-8 weeks. (Oct or Nov)

2015-09-30_13-31-05-UJ1

 

Daily Ichimoku suggests, however, if the price stays at the current level, eventually the price may drop further, as the lower boundary of the clouds is getting lower.  This chart also suggests that once the price pops up above the clouds (120.80), then it may start going up.

2015-09-30_13-38-06-UJ2

This observation is in sync with H4 chart below.   The top of the range is 120.70-121.00 level.  Thus both Daily Ichimoku and H4 chart suggest once the price break the top of the range, we should really buy this pair.  Hopefully that will be the beginning of Long-lasting Yen Weakness.

2015-09-30_13-39-16-UJ3

Another trading idea is that, once the price comes back down to the floor of the range (119.30-40), I would like to buy this pair.

Yes, my short term bias of “Bear” is getting almost over, and waiting for the mid-long term bias of “Bull” to begin.  May not be today or tomorrow.  But NFP on Friday may be the boost of this pair.

Thus, I would not trade any Yen pairs as long as USDJPY stays within a range.

 

Hope this analysis helps.

 

YJ Baik – Forex.Today @ Tokyo

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