USD/JPY slides ahead BOJ July 28, 2016

The USD/JPY pair has managed to decreased today, has decreased below yesterday’s low and could approach fresh new lows if the US dollar index will decrease further on the short term, the USD has decreased after the FOMC Statement, the FED has maintained the Federal Funds Rate steady at 0.50% and has disappointed again, personally I don’t this that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate till the end of the year because I don’t believe that the United States economy will have enough power to force a rate hike, the US inflation remains much low the 2% target, so is somehow understandable why the FED has delayed the hike once again.
The US dollar has taken another blow today from the Unemploymet Claims report, the Jobless Claims have increased from 252K to 266K jobs in the previous week, the economic indicator has come worse compared to the 261K estimate and has weakened the greenback.
Tomorrow we’ll have a very busy day because will have high impact data from Japan and from the United States, the economic data will bring volatility on the USD/JPY pair, so you’ll have to be careful.
Most likely the Japanese Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Outlook Report and the BOJ Press Conference will bring action on the USD/JPY pair, remains to see how the rate will react in the morning, the Japanese expected also to publish the inflation figures, the Retail Sales, which are expected to drop by 1.2%, while the Unemployment Rate may remains steady at 3.2%, moreover the Prelim Industrial Production could increase by 0.6%, personally I advise you to stay way from this pair in the morning because the price action could stole some of your capital.

The price has managed to escape from the minor ascending pitchfork’s body and could drop further in the coming hours, the rate has failed to stay higher, has failed to retest the 38.2% retracement level in yesterday’s trading session, so the current drop was somehow expected. The currency pair remains under immense selling pressure because is still trapped below the median line of the medium term descending pitchfork, is located also below the 38.2% retracement level, the perspective is bearish as the rate is trading deep in the seller’s territory, the sentiment could change significantly only if the price will jump above the 38.2% retracement level and above the median line of the major descending pitchfork. However the major downside target is at the 50% retracement level and at the lower median line (LML).

The pair could drop inside the minor descending pitchfork that was drawn on the H4 chart, you can see that the price has moved sideways on the short term after the breakout from the former ascending pitchfork, the rate is trying to retest the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork, a retest followed by another drop will attract more sellers, which will drive the price toward the minor median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork.

Leave a Reply