The Japanese yen strengthened last Friday partly because of rising uncertainty since Brexit, also because market is not sure that the Fed will raise its rate this month.

CMC Fed Watch said that market really ignores the chance of a hike before December. Even at that point, they only expect 13% chance for a rate hike.

As well as Brexit, the chance for Fed rate hike is also uncertain.

Technical Analysis:

Actually, the chance for upward and downward move is almost the same. However, if we look at the hourly chart, price currrently is moving just below resistance area at 102.915. Hourly stochastic and CCI are overbought. Therefore, the price possibly will fall with 102.449 as target and 102.162 in extension.

Be careful if the price managed to break above 102.915 because it possibly will be followed by bullish move up to 103.093-103.380.

Trading Plan:

Sell on bearish signal confirmation around/below 102.915; S/L @ 103.00, T/P @ 102.449 or 102.162 in extension


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