The Japanese yen is still considered as safe-haven currency. The economy is also giving signals that causes concern. Consumer prices data gradually rising, approaching the BOJ’s 2 percent target until mid-2014. Currently there is some kind of sign of inflationary pressure in Japan. However, prices in February did not rise, economy contracted last quarter and wage growth is considered slow. Core CPI possibly will be zero from March, or even negative.


USD/JPY is still moving within the Fibonacci area at 108.180-108.527. Hourly stochastic and CCI are overbought. As today’s trading strategy, wait for bearish signal confirmation within the Fibonacci area as signal to go short with target at 107.966-107.620.

However note that 20 MA and 50 MA are flat on hourly chart and the price currently is moving above those MA’s. This technical facts suggest that the bearish pressure is not too heavy anymore. Therefore, we should be careful if the price managed to break above the resistance 108.527 because it will turn the intraday bias to bullish and possibly will be followed by a bullish move up to 108.773-109.087.

One thought on “USD/JPY Remains Bearish, Tests Fibo Area; April 12, 2016”

  1. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

    Thank you Eko. Some good data out of China last night and investors looking forward to the meeting in Doha this Sunday is giving us a risk on sentiment in the market. Trading is pretty quiet at the time of writing this though London opened with some Yen strength. Also key to notice that NK is at weekly bull profit zone (WM4) though no sign of profit taking yet as price remains flat at this level. Remaining Yen pairs fell this morning though found support at the 21 EMA on H1. Not sure when you wrote your article though the 21 and 55 EMA on H1 for USDJPY are bullish having crossed to the upside yesterday. We are currently above the 21 EMA on H4 and don’t forget that double bottom at MS2. Price retraced from WM2 which makes WM4 the target – looking at everything at the moment that seems a little optimistic though this is the forex market. While the H4 stochastic shows overbought the daily stochastic is oversold. With us being in earnings season is there a possibility of investors getting out of stocks and into cash while they select their portfolio for the coming year? If so then that could mean dollar strength though I don’t think it would be enough to drive this pair up. We are going to have to see something impressive from BOJ at the end of the month that allows investors to continue sending money off shore from Japan without hedging the position locally. And more to that point – perhaps more confidence in the global economy would help there… IMF report was as expected – eyes to Doha this Sunday… Oil up – China recovery, risk on (oh and let’s not forget about Brexit and Trump)

    Please note I am new to Forex – if I have said something that is clearly incorrect or am misunderstanding something please feel free to point it out to me – I learn a lot from you guys on this site and really appreciate your time and help! Have a great day!

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