USDJPY has been trading sideways on its long-term charts, bouncing off support at the 108.50 minor psychological mark and heading towards the resistance around 114.00 to 114.50. Price is consolidating at the moment, though, and technical indicators are hinting that a selloff could be due.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the ceiling is more likely to hold than to break. Stochastic is also turning lower to indicate the presence of selling pressure that might be enough to take USDJPY back down to support.
US economic data turned out weaker than expected on Friday as the economy shed 33K jobs instead of gaining 88K as expected. However, the previous reading enjoyed an upgrade while average hourly earnings showed stronger than expected wage growth that could fuel inflation down the line.
There were no major reports out of the US economy yesterday as banks were closed in observance of Columbus Day. Japanese banks were also closed then, which explains the consolidation for the pair. Today, the Japanese current account balance is lined up and a smaller surplus of 1.98 trillion JPY is eyed from the previous 2.03 trillion JPY figure.
In the US, FOMC member Kashkari is set to give a speech but traders have already heard his dovish remarks in the past. The next major catalyst for the dollar might be Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release or the CPI and retail sales reports due on Friday. Japan has core machinery orders, preliminary machine tool orders, and PPI data due throughout the week.