The USD/JPY has decreased today, has reached the lowest level of the last 2-weeks, but has failed to reach the lowest low from 98.89 level, the rate is challenging a major static support, is trading right above the 100.00 level, but I’m afraid that the rate will fall further I the coming period because the rate remains deep in the seller’s territory. The pair has squeezed a little in the last hours because the United States economic data has come mixed, the NFP had produced a big surprise today and has lifted the USD on the short term, the USDX has jumped higher, remains to see if the index will have enough energy to break above the 96.70 horizontal resistance.
The Yen wasn’t too impressed by the Japanese economic data, the figures have come worse today, but the currency has remained steady, the Japanese Current Account has decreased from 1.63T to 1.41T, has come under the 1.52T estimate, while the Bank Lending rose only by 2.0%, less compared to the 2.2% growth from the previous reading period. Moreover the Average Cash Earnings have dropped by 0.2%, even if the traders have expected to see a 0.5% increase, the Economy Watchers Sentiment has dropped from 43.0 points to 41.2 points, much below the 42.9 prediction.
The greenback has recovered as the Non-Farm Employment Change has reached the 287K jobs, the economic indicator has increased impressively compared to the 38K jobs in May, the dollar has increased even if the United States Unemployment Rate has increased to 4.9%, exceeding the 4.8% estimate, has reached the highest level of the last 2-months. Moreover the Employment Change has disappointed as well, has increased only by 0.1%, less compared to the 0.2% growth in May, has reached the lowest increase of the previous 4-months.

You can see that the rate has decreased again below the lower median line (LML) of the descending pitchfork, has fallen even below the 50% retracement level, the perspective remains bearish as long as the rate is located below the lower median line (LML). The USD/JY could rebound on the short term only if the price will stay above the 50% retracement level and if will jump again above the lower median line, but right now the rate remains under massive selling pressure on the short and medium term, if will close below the 50% retracement, then will approach the previous low from 98.89 level. Personally, I think that the rate will move sideways till will reach the confluence area formed at the intersection of the 50% retracement level with the lower median line (LML) of the medium term descending pitchfork, most likely will have a clear direction once will touch again the dynamic resistance.

Looks like that the rate is losing the bearish momentum, you can notice that the price has failed to retest the median line of the minor descending pitchfork and now could approach the upper media line of the minor pitchfork and also the lower median line (LML).

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Olimpiu Tuns

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