USDJPY is clearly trending down in the long term having put in a lower low and a lower high. The short term trend is also down, and price has been range-bound in the mid term between 114.000 and 109.000.

Price has pushed down to a major level of daily support which produced a 600+ pip bounce the last time we were here.

Technically, price has stepped up to the Daily 55 from the 21 EMA and is now retesting support, suggesting that this may be a double bottom. Daily, 4 Hour and 1 Hour moving averages all say sell.

Looking out at the daily chart we can see the seasonality in this pair, as 5 of the last 5 Septembers have produced a strong rally. We are now at a major level of support at a time where we could expect price to rise.

UPDATE: Please scroll down for original analysis

Well that went well. Up, down, roll reversal, sweet entry, off to the races 🙂

Daily

4 Hour

1 Hour