The USD/JPY is decreasing again after the last impressive bullish
run, the current retreat has invalidate the breakout above a major dynamic
resistance, the pair is decreasing even if the US economic data has lifted the
Us dollar index today. The currency pair has dropped again in the seller’s territory,
personally I had expected a further increase by the buyers weren’t strong
enough to consolidate the gains, the bears are in control now and could lead
the price much lower in the coming days. The price is seeking for strong
support on the short term. The US dollar index has increased a little today after
the release of the US economic figures, but I’m afraid that the index will decrease
again in the coming days because he looks too heavy to stay higher.

The USD/JPY has ignored the good economic data from the US, the
Jobless Claims have decreased from 268K to 267K jobs in the last week, has come
better compared to the 270K estimate. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change has
increased from 166K to 173K jobs on May, but has failed to reach the 174K
estimate. The Yen has increased aggressively because the Japanese Consumer
Confidence has increased again and have reached the 40.9 level, much higher
than the 40.4 prediction, while the Japanese Monetary Base has increased only
by 25.5%, even if the estimate was 27.2%. 

The rate has plunged again as has failed to stabilize above the
median line of the medium term descending pitchfork, has dropped much below the
110 psychological level and now is heading again toward the 107  area, where he could find strong support. The
perspective remains somehow bullish as long as will trade inside the short
ascending pitchfork, but I’m afraid that the bullish perspective has clouded,
the false breakout has attracted more sellers and the pair could reach and
pressure the 38.2% retracement level. The sentiment will change only when will
have a valid breakout above the median line of the descending pitchfork and
when the buyers will be strong enough to push the price toward the upper median
line of the descending pitchfork and toward the 23.6% retracement level. Maybe
the price will decrease only to retest the 38.2% retracement level before will
start a broader bullish movement, any drop below the 38.2% retracement level
will open the door for more declines, if this scenario will take shape, then
the corrective phase will resume with next downside target somewhere at the 50%
retracement level (100.70 level).

You can see on the H4 chart that the price has found strong resistance
right above the upside sliding parallel line 
(ascending dotted line from above the median line) and then has started
an aggressive bearish momentum, the bears have pushed the price much below the
downside sliding parallel line, signaling that the downward movement will
continue in the coming days, having target at the lower median line of the
ascending pitchfork, could run out of directional enery when will reach this
dynamic support.

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