USD pared gains after Friday NFP data is lower than expected in September. The September non-farm payrolls data was only 156,000, while market expected 171,000. August NFP was revised up to 167,000 from 151,000. September unemployment rate was up 0.1% to 5.0%, but it was because more Americans joined the work force.

Fed’s chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the economy only need to create less than 100,000 jobs each month in order to chase population growth.

It was the last US NFP data before the Fed’s next meeting at 1-2 November. Many analysts said that the chance for a rate hike in November is small due to presidential election at November 8.

Technical Analysis:

USDJPY has fallen, currently is moving below 20 MA and 50 MA on hourly chart. 20 MA has crossed below 50 MA. We can see that the price currently is testing intraday key support at 102.850. If the support breaks, we probably will see another bearish with 102.584 as target and 102.286 in extension.

Note that hourly stochastic and CCI are oversold in general. As alternative strategy, watch for bearish signal confirmation on a pull-back move to within the resistance area at 103.281-103.546 before taking short position with 103.116 as target and 102.850 in extension.

Be careful if the price managed to break resistance 103.546 because it will turn the intraday bias into bullish and possibly will be followed by bullish move to 103.711-103.977.

Trading Plan:

– Sell on break of 102.850; target at 102.584 or 102.286
– Sell on bearish signal confirmation within 103.281-103.546; target at 103.116 or 102.850

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