SUMMARY

USD gained strength on Friday during Janet Yellen’s speech. Sentiments are that there is a possibility for a rate hike in November. This is also confirmed by over 90% probabilities by the FED Watch tool. The expectation by the market is that this will still be stronger going towards 02 November. N.B!!! Some thing which needs to be taken into account is that this is just before the US Presidential election and this might be so likely even though the FED’s BOG are seen to be politically independent. The most likelihood might be December hike. VIX also closed just under $16 where during the past week at shot up to $17.55. This might be a sign that investors might be reacting positively after J. Yellen’s speech. We have to look forward this week also for the high impact news on the calendar involving USD news when trading. JPY has been weaker compare to the USD after the disappointing China data last week. JPY does not seem to have high impact new this coming week except medium ones. We just need to look at the bond market this coming week which impacts on the JPY. The last COT Report indicates that there are more long positions than short positions although the long positions have gone down.

USDJPY DAILY 15OCT2016

Green Bar is Support, Pink Bar is Resistance, Gold Bar is FIB ZONE (Sweet Spot 38.2-61.8). Red arrows is where bears are waiting to push the price down. Green arrows is where bulls are waiting to push the price up. The market is the battle field. You need to have your BIAS and trade in the direction of your BIAS. Purple lines are psychological levels which need to be looked at carefully during trading. On the picture it looks like the market is ranging, but when you zoom out you'll see a steady down trend. With the possible strong support of triple bottoms, there is a possibility of a trend reversal since there are no lower lows experienced. There is crossovers of both the market 22/55 and the price 5/8 which might confirm this possibility. If the market pulls back into the sweet spot and go up, bulls are looking at buying opportunities using smaller time frames after confirmation of the second opportunity for entry. Bears at the pink resistance as well as MM4 & MR1 want the market go further down by looking for selling opportunities. Entries are also done on smaller times frames after the second opportunity.

Source: Technical Analysis

USDJPY H4 15OCT2016

You need to have your BIAS and trade in the direction of your BIAS. Purple lines are psychological levels which need to be looked at carefully during trading. On the picture it looks like the market is starting to go up by making higher highs from the double bottoms at the green support bar & also by looking at the angle of separation between the 21, 55 & 200 EMA's. When you zoom out 100% you'll see a steady down trend. This might signal a possible trend reversal since there are no lower lows experienced for the past three (3) weeks. The market is still above 55 EMA (Riding the 55). Bears are looking for selling opportunities by trying to push the market back from WR1 & the psyche levels to the Central Pivot point which is also in the Sweet Spot. We'll just have to wait for this coming weeks's Pivot point to confirm. We can use these ones for predictions and placement on the new ones. Bulls are looking at pushing the market since it is already above the psyche level. They are looking at buying opportunities using smaller time frames after the second opportunity for entry. Bears at the pink resistance as well as WM4 & WR1 want the market go further down by looking for selling opportunities. Entries are also done on smaller times frames after the second opportunity.

Source: Technical Analysis

USDJPY H1 15OCT2016

The chart shows us that the market is starting to range, although it looked like it was beginning to go up by making higher highs from the previous range. Using fractal geometry this would be the section of approximately the last 10 daily candles which were also showing an upward movement. The angle of separation between the 21 & 55 is not big & now we are riding the 200 EMA which shows that the trend is likely going up. With a pullback already into the sweet spot & the price moving up, bulls are looking at pushing the market up to 138.2 Fib extension since it is also above the psyche level. They are looking at buying opportunities using smaller time frames after the second opportunity for entries. Bears are looking for selling opportunities which might be dips by trying to push the market back from the pink resistance level or DR1 to the Daily Pivot point which is also in the Sweet Spot or lower. Their target would be DS1. Entries are also done on smaller times frames after the second opportunity. We'll also have to wait for Monday's Pivot points to confirm. We can use these ones for predictions and transfer to the new Pivot points.

Source: Technical Analysis

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