USDJPY is trending lower on its 1-hour time frame, moving inside a descending channel and approaching support at the 111.50-111.75 area. A bounce off this area could take price back up to the channel resistance around the 114.00 major psychological level.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA for now so the path of least resistance is to the downside, but the short-term moving average appears to be getting ready for an upward crossover so a bounce could be likely. If buying pressure is strong enough, traders could even push for a break past the channel resistance.
Meanwhile, stochastic is in the oversold area, also suggesting that a bounce from the selloff is due. A break above the channel resistance could take USDJPY up to the next area of interest at 115.50.
The dollar has been in a lot of selling pressure before Trump officially took office, as investors have been speculating about a lot of uncertainty during his administration. His “America First” theme seems to have backfired on the dollar as a potential trade war would also have dire consequences on US economic growth.
On the other hand, the Japanese yen has been the beneficiary of risk-off moves, especially during the Asian session. Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick Mnuchin shared his plans to investigate China’s currency manipulation tactics while Trump signed an executive order quitting the TPP during his first day in the White House.
Medium-tier data from Japan came in stronger than expected today, as the flash manufacturing PMI climbed from an upgraded 52.4 figure to 52.8 instead of dipping to 52.3. Prior to this, the all industries activity index posted a 0.3% uptick. US flash manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, and Richmond manufacturing index are due next.