USDJPY is trending higher, moving inside an ascending channel on its 4-hour time frame. Price just bounced off the resistance late last week and is pulling back towards support at the 102.00 major psychological level.
The pair closed at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on Friday then gapped higher over the weekend to move closer to the resistance at 105.00-105.50. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, which suggests that a break higher could be possible.
Until price closes past the swing high, though, the correction could still be in play and USDJPY could fill the gap until it tests the 61.8% Fib closer to the bottom of the channel. Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions so buyers are already feeling tired and could allow sellers to take it from here.
The US elections will likely be the biggest movers of price action for the week, as the conclusion of the FBI probe on Clinton’s private email server over the weekend allowed risk appetite to return and the dollar to start the week stronger. Still, traders might book positions before the results start coming in, possibly leading to some dollar weakness.
Based on previous market movements, a Clinton victory could be positive for US markets and the dollar while a Trump victory could spur a flight to safety, which would favor the Japanese yen. Either way, volatility is likely to spike once the voting centers start sending in results so wide stops are warranted.
There are no major reports lined up from Japan for the day, leaving traders focused purely on the US elections. After this, the attention will turn to the next FOMC meeting in December, as US data hasn’t been all that impressive and post-election risks could still keep central bank officials in a cautious mood.