FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

THE COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
WE SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LONG POSITIONS FROM OCTOBER 18TH, WHILE LESS TRADERS ARE TAKING SHORT POSITIONS.http://forex.today/the-commitment-of-traders-report-total-non-hedging-fx-open-positions/

USDJPY REVIEW
DATA RELEASED THE PAST WEEK FROM AMERICA WAS POSITIVE WITH DOLLAR PERFORMING WELL AGAINST MAJOR CURRENCIES. IF POSITIVE DATA CONTINUES TO COME OUT OF THE US, THAN THAT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER EVEN MORE, WITH A NOVEMBER RATE BEING DOUBTFUL DUE TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.“Firstly, growth is likely to have accelerated considerably again.. Secondly, there are growing signs that inflation pressure is increasing a little. Longer-term market-based inflation expectations have risen by about 30 basis points since the start of the year and are back to where they were at the time of the first rate hike in December 2015. These data meet the criterion of further progress towards their targets, cited by the Fed in its last statement as the precondition for an interest rate rise.”

“The Fed could indicate in the statement published after its meeting next week that it now sees even more reasons for higher interest rates. It will repeat its view that the economic risks are now balanced – this can be understood to mean that the traffic light for a rate rise is on green. Three FOMC members are likely to cast dissenting votes again, preferring an increase of the federal funds target corridor.”https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-unlikely-to-raise-rates-a-week-before-the-us-election-commerzbank-201610281555
NO MAJOR REPORTS AS WELL FROM JAPAN LAST WEEK, BUT HOUSEHOLD SPENDING DATA CAME IN AT -2.1%, BETTER THAN -2.6% ESTIMATION.

FORECAST

THE US DOLLAR WILL HAVE A BUSY WEEK WITH USDJPY’S DIRECTION BEING DETERMINED BY CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITY,FUNDAMENTAL NEWS OR THE STORY REGARDING AN FBI PROBE OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HILLARY CLINTON’S EMAILS.
THE JAPANESE YEN WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED THIS COMING WEEK AFTER THE BANK OF JAPAN PRESS CONFERENCE ON NOVEMBER 1ST. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT WILL BE SAID AFTER THE BANK OF JAPAN CUT INTEREST RATES BELOW ZERO ON FRIDAY.”What’s important is to show people that the BOJ is strongly committed to achieving 2 percent inflation and that it will do whatever it takes to achieve it,” BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told a news conference after the decision. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-decision-idUSKCN0V70A7
THE DOLLAR WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERAL DATA RELEASES ON THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXPECTED TO BRING SOME VOLATILITY IN THE MARKET:
-FOMC MEETING STATEMENT
-ISM MANUFACTURING PMI
-NFP
-CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES
-FED INTEREST RATE HIKE DECISION
-ISM NON-MANUFACTURING
-UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1. Always determine support & resistance which are indicated in the green & pink bars.
2. Market direction is indicated by 21 & 55 EMA.
3. Direction of price is indicated by 5 & 8 moving averages & stochastic cycles.
5. Golden rule: BEARS sell high at resistance & BULLS buy low at support.

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