This is a longterm trade with a small position in USDCNH.

Why do I place this trade?

In China there are stockmarket and housing bubbles which are about to burst. In addition, we have huge debts throughout the economy which are running at 250% of GDP and economic growth is already falling (despite the Chinse giving a grwoth rate of 6.7% which clearly cannot be correct). In terms of exports, there now falling and there is simply not enough domestic demand to make up for the shortfall in exports.

I believe in long term China will devaluate their currency to make exports cheaper.

This kind of trade I usually like to run with 2 Targets and take 50% off when hit the first target.



Source: MT4

One thought on “USDCNH – Longterm trade with small position”

  1. adamp says:

    Nice setup and good analysis, I also believe the authorities will at some point devalue their currency significantly.

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