USDCHF has been trending higher recently, moving inside a rising channel visible on its 1-hour and 4-hour charts. Price is currently testing the channel support and could be due for a bounce back to the resistance at the .9950 to 1.0000 area.
The 100 SMA just crossed above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that buyers are taking control of price action. In addition, the 100 SMA lines up with the bottom of the channel, adding to its strength as support.
However, stochastic is still on the move down, which suggests that there’s some bearish pressure left. In that case, price could make another test of support at .9800 before resuming its climb or possibly push for a downside break. If so, a downtrend might be in the cards.
Data from the US economy came in stronger than expected yesterday, lending more support for the dollar. Initial jobless claims stood at 254K versus the 263K forecast while PPI reports also beat expectations.
Potential catalysts for a bounce include the release of US retail sales and PPI data in today’s New York trading session. Headline retail sales is expected to be up by 0.1% while core retail sales could show a 0.4% gain. Headline and core CPI are both expected to show 0.2% gains.
There are no major reports out from Switzerland but the franc could be in for more declines if uncertainty in the European region lingers. In addition, the threat of SNB intervention could continue to keep a lid on the Swiss currency’s gains.