The USD/CHF has decreased little today because has found temporary resistance on the short term, the rate has dropped even if the US dollar index is fighting hard to stay higher, the index has decreased but now looks determined to approach the yesterday’s high from 96.05 level. We’ll see if the USDX will have enough energy to increase on the short term because the United States economic data have come worse today compared to the economists forecast, the currency pair could increase a little ahead of the FOMC.
The main event of this week will be tomorrow when the Federal Reserve will publish the Federal Funds Rate, the FED is expected to maintain the rate on hold again and could disappoint the currency traders again, as you already know, the FED has promised that will hike the rate several times during this year, but the poor US data along with the global events have forced the FED to maintain the rate steady.
The CHF has increased in the first part of the day also because the Switzerland Trade Balance has increased a little from 2.81B to 3.02B, but unfortunately has come under the 3.27B estimate, the trade surplus has reached the highest level of the last 2-months.
The USD/CHF has increased a little in the last hours even if the United States economic figures have come worse, the Building Permits have remained steady at 1.14M for the second month in August, but has come worse than the 1.17M forecast, while the Housing Starts has dropped sharply from 1.21M to 1.14M, has come in much below the 1.19M prediction, the indicator has reached the lowest level of the last 5-months, but the USD has ignored the poor data and remains steady, we’ll see what will happen after the FOMC rate decision.

The rate is pressuring the first warning line (wl1) of the descending pitchfork, is challenging also the 0.9785 level, a breakout above these level will attract more buyers, which will lead the rate towards the next upside targets. The greenback is waiting for a bullish spark, personally I’ll advise you to stay away from trading during the FOMC, the event could bring high volatility on the short term, the fundamental events will move the rate tomorrow, so you’ll have to be careful. The perspective remains bullish as long as the rate is trading inside the ascending pitchfork’s body, could approach the downtrend line if the USDX will have enough energy to resume the upward movement.

You can see that I’ve added an ascending pitchfork on the H4 chart to understand better the price action, the rate is somehow expected to resume the upward movement because has failed to reach and retest the lower median line (lml) of the minor ascending pitchfork, could approach again the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork, but we have to wait for a valid breakout and a confirmation before we make a decision.

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