Oil was down by over 1 % on 14 November 2016 on persistent concerns of a supply glut. OPEC plans to rein in output to 32.5-33 million barrels a day but doubts remain about whether it can get members to agree to that. The cartel has until its formal meeting on 30 November 2016 to broker a deal. In conclusion, these events could lead to the USD/NOK pair to move up.
There is speculation U.S. shale output could rise under a Trump presidency as the number of rigs operating in the U.S. increased by two to 452. Also 14 November 2016, U.S. crude was down 1.52%, while U.S yield and bank stocks rose. There is a lot of economic data for the U.S. coming this week and FOMC. In conclusion, these events could lead to the USD/NOK pair to move up.
It seems that USD/NOK pair will face challenges (exogenous factors) from the strength of U.S., oil price and supply oil glut leading to the USD/NOK to move up to possible highs of January 2016 @ around 8.7, despite Norges Bank selling foreign exchange on behalf of the government equivalent to NOK 900 million per day (hence i will be looking to sell the pair).
Following the election of Trump the USD/NOK pair continued to move up as the USD continued to be strong, while falling oil price further put pressure on the NOK to depreciate. Therefore, my trade plan for these week is to closely monitor the bullish momentum of the pair for signs to sell the pair @ MR2 8.5233 or @ MR3 8.7472 also @ 8.8525 due to (i) U.S continued strength as U.S. bank stocks and yields are rising, (ii) the continued drop of oil price, (iii)oil supply glut, (iv) The uncertainty of the OPEC 30 November 2016 oil supply deal, (v) Trump presidency could lead to U.S to further supply oil as the rig increased by two to 352, and (vi) a lot of economic data for the U.S. coming this week and FOMC