USDCHF has been trending lower on its 1-hour chart, moving inside a descending channel and testing support. Price has formed a bearish flag right at the bottom of the channel around the .9600 major psychological support and might be due for a break lower.
In that case, the pair could be in for a steeper selloff, as this would also put it below the neckline of a double top formation on a longer-term time frame. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that further losses are possible. Meanwhile, stochastic and RSI are on middle ground and barely offering strong directional clues.
A bounce from the near-term support could lead to another test of the channel resistance at the .9700 major psychological mark. This lines up with the moving averages, which have held as dynamic resistance levels recently.
US traders are off on a Columbus Day holiday today, which suggests lower liquidity among dollar pairs. There are no reports out of the US today, although the ones released recently suggest further dollar downside. The US NFP report for September printed weaker than expected results while the FOMC minutes confirmed that the Fed is waiting for more improvements before tightening.
The upcoming CPI releases this week could make or break the dollar’s trends, as these would indicate whether or not significant progress has been made in terms of the pickup in price levels. Recall that policymakers specified that they’d like to be reasonably confident that the US economy is moving closer towards achieving its 2% target in the near-term before deciding to hike rates.
Other event risks include the release of US retail sales data, which could show if there is enough momentum in the economy. As for Switzerland, only the PPI and ZEW economic expectations figures are lined up for the week.