The USD/CAD has increased significantly today and has managed to continue the yesterday’s bullish candle, has edged higher aggressively as the USDX has rallied today. The greenback was supported by USDX’s growth, the index has found temporary support somewhere above the 99.12 static support and now is trading much above the 100.00 psychological level. The US dollar index has increased as much as 100.73 level, but unfortunately has failed to stay above the 100.54 static resistance, remains to see what will happen on the USDX in the coming days because we still need a confirmation that the corrective phase has completed.
The USD/CAD has increased significantly and has managed to erase the last week losses, has touched the 1.3211 high today, but has decreased a little in the afternoon, the minor retreat was somehow expected after the impressive rally. The pair could increase further if the USDX will have enough energy to stay higher and to resume the current rebound.
The Loonie has dropped also because the Canadian data have disappointed today, the Trade Balance has come in worse than expected, the surplus has decreased from 1.0B to 0.9B in December, despite that the economists have predicted an increase to 1.2B, the CAD has decreased even if the Trade Balance economic indicator has managed to stay in the positive territory for the second month in December. The Building Permits have dropped by 6.6%, more versus the -3.5% estimate, the economic indicator continues to drop after the 1.2% decrease from the previous reading period. Moreover the Canadian Ivey PMI has decreased significantly in January, from 60.8 to 57.2 points, has come much below the 58.3 estimate, signalling that the expansion has slowed down, so the Loonie’s drop is understandable.
The USD has lost ground in the last hours as the United States economic data have failed to impress, the Trade Balance has increased from -45.7B to -44.3B, beating the -45.0B, but unfortunately the JOLTS Job Openings have fallen from 5.51M to 5.50M, even if the economists have forecasted an increase to 5.56M, moreover the Consumer Credit has fallen from 25.2B to 14.2B, has come much below the 20.3B estimate.


The USD/CAD has increased and could approach the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork, the rebound is natural after the several false breakouts below the median line (ML) of the major descending pitchfork. The rate has found strong support on the third warning line (wl3) of the former ascending pitchfork, could approach also the second warning line (wl2) if the USDX will increase further. The rate has increased also because has lost the bearish momentum, could be attracted even by the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork in the coming weeks if the USDX's corrective phase is completed.


I've added a minor ascending pitchfork (drawn with red) on the H4 chart, is located between the lower median line (lml) and the median line (ml), is expected to approach and reach the median line (ml) after the retest of the lower median line (lml).

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