USD gained some ground today off the results of crude oil inventories which was to be expected after a 30% rise in the WTI, which showed signs of losing ground late last week. Looking at the USDCAD H4 we can expect price to reach the retracement of the Weekly M4 this week @ 1.345 and possibly extend to the R2 next week @1.359 to reach the 38.2 retracement of the last down move.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD D1

In a mid term analysis we could expect some sideways bearish movement as the slow summer months are not to far away. We could possibly look for price range between 1.359 and 1.29.

USDCAD W1

On the longer term depending on where our retracement will end, we could possibly look for any price action sell signal around the 38.2 retracement @ 1.359 which also just happens to be our Weekly R2 level for this week. As we know a 32.8 retracement predicts a 161.8 which could bring us to parity by the beginning of next year.

Happy trading