As a bull on US dollar starting from our daily chart I have noticed price has broke in our channel and currently making its way towards the bull’s profit taking zone at MM4 – MR2, which from there i expect it to retrace back as more bulls will be taking profit and bears starting to jump it as is closer to resistance level of at (1.35518). Judging from the chart price showing to have the strength as is riding the 5 EMA to reach the profit taking level before mid month and if that may be true, i expect it to fall to the identified resistance or the MPP to attract bulls in for long positions
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Hi Mokhine
First thing I do when I look at a pair is the direction of the market – are we trending or ranging. This instantly tells me which strategy I am using. As you can see on the daily chart price is currently ranging and is at MR1 – which is the typical resistance for a range with MS1 as its target. Also notice the very overbought stochastic on the daily chart – remember when there is no market (21 and 55 are flat) we have to rely on price and that’s why we use the stochastic. In a range we want to identify when price is overbought at the top of a range or oversold at the bottom of a range. Further to MR1 being resistance we also see that price opened at WM3 so this confluence of resistance is expected to attract Bears and see Bulls take profit. Therefore if you were a Bear you would be eyeing this resistance and if price failed to move down from here then you would be eyeing resistance at 1.3550. The reason why I am mentioning Bears so much is because I don’t see us being at support at the moment and with this being a range there are only two places where I can buy if I am a Bull and that’s at the bottom of the range or after a breakout with a pullback to the previous top of the range. If either of those options are not available then I stand by until they are. I would consider MPP/ 1.32 as support seeing as this is the top of the previous range and if that fails then the next level I would look at would be 1.3050 which coincides with WM1.
Best
Ryan Gandalf
Coach @ MetaTraders.com
Analyst @ Forex.Today
Skype Ryan.Gandalf
e-mail [email protected]