Price is trading in the red on the Daily chart and could approach and reach the 1.2912 Tuesday’s low in the upcoming hours if the USDX will slide further. Could decrease further because is still under selling pressure, but I don’t think that will drop much because could be too oversold on the short term, is approaching very important support levels that could stop the current bearish momentum. Right now we don’t have a reversal signal, but we could have in the upcoming days if the dollar index will have enough power to stay above the 95.45 previous low.
The dollar index dropped significantly after the release of the first United States data as the figures have disappointed, remains to see what will bring the other economic figures. The greenback will depreciate significantly if the data will come worse in the upcoming hour, the pair will be driven by the fundamental factors in the upcoming hours, so you should be careful not to suffer a heavy loss if a high volatility appears. Personally I’me expecting to see a minor accumulation move on the USDX before will start a larger increase, looks like that is developing a Falling Wedge pattern on the daily chart, a breakout from this potential pattern will confirm a broader increase.
Price continues to trade in the red after the mixed Canadian data and after the poor US figures, the Canadian Trade deficit increased from 0.6B to 1.1B in May, more above the 0.5B estimate, while the Building Permits increased by 8.9% in May, beating the 2.5% estimate and the 0.5% growth in the former reading period.
Unfortunately for the USD, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was reported at 158K in June, much below the 184K estimate and versus the 230K in the former reading period, the Unemployment Claims increased from 244K to 248K in the last week, despite that the traders have expected to see a decrease to 243K, while the Trade Balance increased from -47.6B to -46.5B, but failed to reach the -46.3B estimate. The greenback received support from the Final Services PMI, which increased from 53.0 to 54.2 points, beating the 53.0 estimate.
Remains to see how will react after the ISm Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released, is forecasted to decrease from 56.9 to 56.5 points.

USDCADdaily

Price decreased after the yesterday's rebound, has tested the 23.65 retracement level and failed to close above, could approach the 1.2912 previous low if the dollar index will stay below the 96.00 psychological level. You can see that is approaching the second warning line (wl2) of the minor ascending pitchfork, where he could find support, we have also the first warning line (wl1) of a minor descending pitchfork, could rebound if the support levels will hold. I want to remind you that the next major downside target will be at the median line (ML) of the major descending pitchfork, so we may have a great buying opportunity if the rate will be rejected by the mentioned support levels. A failure to reach and retest the ML will send the rate much higher in the upcoming weeks, we'll have to wait only for a confirmation that will increase again.

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