Yes once again CAD gained another 100 PIPs over the USD and Oil keeps going up for the 3rd month in a row, at this point we can pretty much predict the future, BUT FOR HOW LONG???

I was thinking today of my misjudgement of wednesday thinking 1.32 might be a low and USD might gain strength from there but realized I didn’t really have any proof in the pudding to back it up especially having the H4 being so overbought, on second thought it was a little foolish.  So I decided to pull out YE GOOD OLDE  MONTHLY CHART to see if I wouldn’t be able to see anything relevant and there it was staring me right in the face. A major zone between 1.285 and 1.267 which also acts as a 38.2 retracement. Notice the other levels as well in the fibonacci chart which also seem to fall right at old supports or resistances.

Now thinking we are going right back to parity is pushing it but I’m curious to see what the news will come up with to sway sentiment as we reach the 1.267 level, or if nothing will happen and we’ll just plough right through to the 50% @ 1.205. I highly doubt the second scenario as weekly chart is looking very oversold.

Happy Trading or  Happy St. Patricks  (pick one not both) 🙂

USDCAD Monthly



  1. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

    Thanks Guy! What I don’t get is what makes the price of oil increase when the market is still oversupplied. We have seen massive drops in rigs and shale producers and the guys who can’t afford to produce at these levels are about to default. Ok so that makes less production – though enough to drive the price of WTI right past MR2?
    Then there are talks about a confirmed date and place for Russia and Opec members to meet and discuss a proposed output freeze until the end of the year put forward by Russia – though excluding Iran due to them wanting output at pre-sanction levels before even considering a freeze or a cut. Is speculation the driver behind the price?
    I definitely think it is fear – oil drops, stock markets drop, Yen strengthens – everything goes risk off… No one wants that. If there was any intelligence behind the central banks of the world would they have not had some form of conversation about how to increase the price of oil? Or, and I am new so excuse my naivety, could oil producing countries put money (which they can print at their leisure) into oil future contracts, drive the price up and then recover their investment from selling oil at a higher price?
    It is very strange though I do prefer risk on to risk off so I do hope (and that is not much of a strategy) that whatever’s going on that’s keeping the price of oil up continues without this becoming a bubble. Having said that – one must be prepared for everything. Thank you for your analysis and your hard work in helping us traders out. It is greatly appreciated! Forex.Today is the best site on the internet.

    1. Guy Pelletier says:

      @ Ryan What seems to be driving prices is over productivity and investors sentimate that they don’t want to see prices drop below 30$ a barrel. Until there will be a definite deal signed on paper things should be volatile. Insecurity brings volatility, volatility is good for making pips. 🙂

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