USDCAD came down off the weekly and monthly profit-taking zone on Friday. Better than expected inflation data helped. While USDCAD bears might be feeling rather excited one should take note that price did not break through support on Friday and is likely to come back up and double top before heading lower. WTI is also at a key level of resistance and there is the possibility of Dollar strength if your bias supports scenario A on my Dollar Index analysis.

USDCAD Daily

A move back up for a double top would have price opening at around MM3 for March. Take note of the confluence of this price and the bottom of the previous range. Also take note that price did not break below 1.26 so until we have a double top this pair is not bearish.

USDCAD H4

As you can see the 55 is in control and price respected it on Friday. The stoch is bearish so continued profit taking is expected initially though when price hits that 55 again or support at 1.26 or WM2, we expect bulls to buy and push price back up to make a double top at 1.2750. A lower high is also plausible with WM3 as resistance so if you are a bear then you are paying careful attention to both 1.27 and 1.2750

WTI Daily

Price has reached MPP, the target after coming up off Feb's profit zone. Are bulls going to buy here and take price higher? Are bears going to sell here and take price lower?

WTI H4

If you are a bear then you have your price. Confluence of MPP and WM3 with an overbought H4 (not crossed down into the trade zone yet) is definitely something you are paying attention to. Your target is WM1. Note the 61.8% fib of the bullish move is at 60.50/ WM1/ role reversal of the double bottom at 58.50. If you see oil heading higher then your price is WPP and WM2 with a target of WM4/ WR2 respectively. Alternatively, as a bull you could also look for an opportunity to go long at the 61.8%/ WM1/ 60.50.

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