CAD has been one of the year’s worst performers, losing against all major currencies. However I think it’s time start looking for reversals on the “Loonie” pairs.

One of the factors that has been dragging the currency down is the political and trade uncertainty, regarding the end of the NAFTA deal and the US tariffs on steel and aluminium. However, last week we came to know that Canada may be given exemptions on the US Tariffs, which is definitely positive for the country, considering that the US are their largest trade partner and even though we still have the NAFTA deal to “clear up”, this could surely ease some of the tensions that have been building lately.

Having this in mind, I drew some scenarios on the the USD/CAD pair for the week:

USD/CAD - Daily

Price broke key support on the 1.287 level and stoch is still pointing down


There's 2 scenerios in play: "Agressive" Bears will be looking to sell it as a Role Reversal on the WPP, but bulls may have the a better setup... Price opened at the WM2, which predicts a WM4 and would make a perfect double top off the pivot. This could strengthen the case of a reversal pattern on this pair and definitely attract more interest from the bears. I'm waiting to see where it goes from now, but seems to me that we may have on last upward move before the fall.

WTI - H4

We haven't been having much to look into WTI lately. Market is neutral to bearish and price is trading range-bound, so until something changes fundamentally, I don't believe we may have oil impacting on CAD's behavior.

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