LAST WEEK OPEC & NON-OPEC MEMBERS REACHED AN AGREEMENT AT THE 172ND MEETING IN VIENNA. THEY DECIDED TO EXTEND THEIR PRODUCTION CUTS FOR A FURTHER PERIOD OF NINE MONTHS IN AN ATTEMPT TO STABILIZE THE OIL MARKET. OIL FELL AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT & IT SEEMS THE MARKET WAS LOOKING FOR DEEPER CUTS. OPEC OFFICIALS HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING THE CUTS. OIL TRADED AS LOW AS 46.94 AS WE SAW A 5% SELL OFF BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK AT A CLOSE OF 47.85. PERHAPS THE OPEC PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT NEEDS SOME TIME TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MARKET. CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTH AMERICAN RIG COUNT DATA WOULD PROBABLY MAKE SENSE SINCE A DROP IN ACTIVE RIGS COULD HELP OPEC’S AGREEMENT AND POTENTIALLY HELP THE SINKING OIL PRICE.

THE LOONIE STARTED LAST WEEK WITH SOME WEAKNESS AND THE SELL OFF IN OIL DIDN’T DO MUCH TO HELP THE CANADIAN CURRENCY. WE ALSO HAD SOME DATA FROM CANADA. TO MENTION A FEW, THE CANADIAN Q1 GDP CAME OUT DISAPPOINTING LAST WEEK AND FELL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS OF 4.8% AND PRINTING 3,7%. CANADIAN TRADE BALANCE FIGURES ALSO CAME OUT NEGATIVE @ -0.37B, WHICH WAS BETTER THAN LAST MONTH’S READING OF -0.94.
FUNDAMENTALLY THE DOLLAR WAS QUITE BUSY LAST WEEK WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING NFP WHICH MISSED EXPECTATIONS AND POSTED 138K. DESPITE THE WEAK NFP PRINT THE FEDWATCH TOOL SHOWS THAT THE MARKET STILL BELIEVES THAT THE FED WILL HIKE THIS MONTH. THE BEIGE BOOK SHOWED THAT THE U.S ECONOMY EXPANDED AT A MODERATE PACE. AS DOLLAR HAS BEEN WEAK LATELY ONE HAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ALL FUNDAMENTALS AND POLITICAL EVENTS SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENT.

USDCAD DAILY

MARKET IS SIDEWAYS, 21 & 55 ARE FLAT. PRICE IS FLAT ALTHOUGH PRICE HAS BEEN MOVING UP PRINTING HIGHER HIGHS & HIGHER LOWS. STOCHASTICS HEADING NORTH INDICATING FURTHER PRICE ACTION TO THE UPSIDE.

USDCAD H4

MARKET IS SIDEWAYS. MOVING AVERAGES ARE FLAT. RESISTANCE AT WR1 WHICH COINCIDES WITH MPP. FURTHER RESISTANCE AT WM4&WR2. STOCHASTIC FACING SOUTH.

WTICRUDE DAILY

MARKET IS SIDEWAYS. PRICE CURRENTLY BELOW MPP. ALTHOUGH I HAVE IDENTIFIED A POSSIBLE CHANNEL, I THINK BEST WAY TO TRADE THIS IS TO USE A RANGE STRATEGY. THE BOTTOM OF THE RANGE IDENTIFIED BY THE GREEN BARS AND THE TOP OF THE RANGE BY THE ORANGE BAR. STOCHASTICS ALMOST OVERSOLD.

WTICRUDE H4

MARKET IS BEARISH, 55 ABOVE THE 21. RESISTANCE @ WPP WHICH COINCIDES WITH MPP. STOCHASTICS HEADING NORTH. BEARS WILL LOOK TO SHORT AT WPP WITH A TARGET OF WM1.

USDCAD H1 (POST TRADE PLAN)

WTICRUDE H4 (POST TRADE PLAN)

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