After analyzing Gold our next logical step is to take a look at Aussie. Same same but different. Same same, AUSUSD at WS2 different, not coming up off a monthly reversal pivot with Bears likely to sell at WPP and take it down to MM1, which is the bearish target for the month. Though that is the case technically, Bulls are paying careful attention to reversals. Especially with Gold and Copper price action and the subtle change in RBA communication last week.

“Most notable from the RBA’s decision statement was an increased degree of comfort over the Australian dollar. As highlighted by our Chief Economist Bill Evans, while the TWI has only fallen 1.8% since the November meeting, it has now declined
more than 5% since its peak in July. The absence of comments in the statement such as November’s “the higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to continued subdued price pressures in the economy. It is also weighing on the outlook for output and employment” signals a renewed ease with the level of the AUD. Discussion of the housing market also carried a more subdued tone, the outperformance of Melbourne no longer mentioned. ” Westpac

Predicted Weekly Pivots
WR3: 0.78313
WR2: 0.76910
WM4: 0.76455
WR1: 0.76000
WM3: 0.75754
WPP: 0.75507
WM2: 0.75052
WS1: 0.74597
WM1: 0.74351
WS2: 0.74104
WS3: 0.72701

Note. Pivot points are just projections and may differ at market open. Calculated using high, low and close of the previous week as per FXBootcamp Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex pg. 668

AUDUSD Daily

Bears that sold at MM3/ 61.8% fib have a target of MM1/ 138.2% fib extension. 0.75000 is a key support level price action wise though with price having broken below MS2 we do expect price to continue down to the monthly target after Bears sell at the role reversal of the previous low. Note that price is currently Bearish.

AUDUSD H4

There is an opportunity for Bulls at market open later today. This is a counter trend opportunity due to price being at WS2 at Friday's market close. The standard play is price back up to WPP and then Bears short and price moves down to the monthly target. If you are a Bull then you could take profit at WPP or you could put your stop in profit below the role reversal of the double bottom . In the unlikely event that price breaks out higher you'll be happy you did and if not then you still make some money. If you are a Bear then you are selling at WPP. According to the predicted pivot points, price is going to open at WM2 with WPP marking the role reversal of the previous low, there is confluence between WM4 and MM3 (top of the previous range) and WM1/ WS2 is at the monthly target. If price fails to break out to the upside this week then Bulls are definitely paying attention to MM1/ MS2 for a reversal. This is the most likely outcome as per technical analysis and monthly pivot point targets.

Copper Daily

I shared this chart earlier this week. Price has failed to break below MS2 and we don't expect it to go lower. A move higher in Gold and Copper would bode well for our Aussie and this is why it may be better to move your stop into profit as we approach WPP rather than just taking profit at WPP.

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