Summary

The upturn in the Swedish economy is continuing, but the Riksbank assesses that it will take longer before inflation attains the target of 2 per cent. The upturn in inflation therefore needs continued strong support. The Executive Board assesses that the repo rate needs to be held at −0.50 per cent for six months longer than was forecast in September. The probability that the rate will be cut further has increased. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2016, as decided in April. Prior to the monetary policy meeting in December, the Executive Board is prepared to extend the purchases of government bonds. http://www.riksbank.se/en/Press-and-published/Press-Releases/2016/prm_161027/
The much anticipated US interest rate hike in December might deviate investors interest to USA economy as the negative interest rate from Swedish economy is not appealing to investors. Swedish Krona reported Consumer Price Index (YoY) of -0.50% in October relative to -0.50% forecast. http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Swedish economy export more to its Euro zone trading partners and only 6% to USA hence USA Presidential election and outcome thereof contributed marginaly to Swedish Krona. http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/swe/

Reasons behind going short on USDSEK Pair
USDSEK pair moved sideways past week and witnessed double tops on daily time frame therefor I remain bearish on this pair.
The Pair has broken the highest resistance level last seen in April 2015.

Swedish Krona remain bearish and has broken 8.88403 level last seen in April 2015. It has currently reached highest resistance level. The bulls will take profit at this level and Bears will sell. We might also witness GAP when market opens on the 14 Nov 2016. Waiting to see price breaking lower trend-line to support my bias behavior.

Double top on H4 chart therefore anticipating Bears to take charge. The pair also reached the highest resistance level and therefor Bulls will be skeptical to continue their bullishness. Week Prior US presidential election saw 5 & 8 EMA cross. This will continue as the market has digested the outcome of the Presidential elect and therefor looking for new fundamentals and technical information to support their bias behavior.

The market has reached strong resistance level whereby price was resisted more than four times. This continue to support the idea of price going to the down side.

Double top on M15 chart continue to support downside trend when market open

One thought on “Swedish Krona weekly Review 7 – 11 Nov 2016”

  1. Dalmas Ngetich - FOREX.TODAY says:

    Hi Michael, nice analysis mate but the monthly is strongly bullish. Further during the previous rate decision the Riksbank decided that they will hold their interest rates neutral atleast for the next 18 months as they make assessment on inflation and monetary stances around the Eurozone. Anyway, lets wait and see, but I’m short SEK across all currency pairs.

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