On MONDAY August 29 it’s all about USD. We’ll have PCE MoM and YoY, core PCE MoM and YoY, Personal Income and Personal Spending, and Dallas Fed Manifacturing.
Monday data will probably tell us how much of a retracement will be suffered by USD after the rally that followed Jackson Hole. I guess it’s the day to be looking at all the USD PAIRS.
On TUESDAY we’ll have Employment data for Japan and also Retail Sales and Household spending. Nice to know in order to confirm our bias for a weaker JPY and an upward trend to get established for the JPY PAIRS.
Some data also from the UK and from Germany will give us the pulse of the weakness of GBP and EUR: Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals in the UK, CPI from Germany.
Also Home Price Indices YoY and Consumer Confidence from the US.
On WEDNESDAY we’ll have Consumer Confidence from the UK, employment data from Germany and Italy and CPI from the EU. Also ADP, Purchasing Managers’ Index and Pending Home Sales from the US could make us watch the pairs GBPUSD and EURUSD.
Also GDP QoQ and MoM from Canada could make us watch CAD in pairs like USDCAD and CADJPY. Canadian Current Account already released on Tuesday and Manifacturing PMI to be released on Thursday would complete the picture for CAD this week. Or course today is also the day of the week to watch OIL inventories.
RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle speech an FX conference in Singapore could set the tone for the AUD.
On THURSDAY we’ll know about Foreign Investments in Japan Stocks and Foreign Bond Investment. Australian AiG Performance of Mfg Index, Retail sales from Australia and Manufacturing and Non-Manifacturing PMI from China would have us look at the AUD again, in particular AUDUSD and AUDJPY.
Markit Manifacturing PMI from EU, Germany and the UK coupled with Markit Manifacturing PMI from the US and a lot of employment and productivity data from the US will have look at GBPUSD and EURUSD again. Of course the most important data are ISM Manifacturing PMI and ISM Prices Paid.
On FRIDAY some PMI construction data from the UK, PPI from the EU and GDP from Italy will warm us up for the NFP that will define the trend of the USD for the weeks ahead.
Please add your view on my interpretation of the importance of the data for the next week, your ideas for good currencies to pair for trades and any other comment you might have.