Supply disruption from Nigeria to Canada affected the global oil supply ahead of OPEC meeting on Thursday in Vienna. The meeting agenda is to talk about production policy. 

There isn’t any significant movement of oil price since yesterday, but overall it has been strengthened since about four months ago. Attack of Nigerian separatist militia had limited the country’s supply to the lowest level in more than two decades. Separatedly, Canada oil production declined because of the wildfire. Canadian oil producers will be operating again once the fire put down. 

For short-term trading, we can see that the hourly chart is showing that the oil price remains in neutral bias. 20 MA and 50 MA are rather flat on hourly chart and the price currently is moving between 49.59 (resistance) and 49.22 (support). There isn’t any clear bullish or bearish signal from either from hourly stochastic or CCI.
As today’s trading plan, I suggest to wait for a clear breakout above the resistance 49.59. Please note that the resistance is NOT an exact level, instead it’s more like a “range”. We should also notice the previous candlesticks especially the ones that broke the resistance. Therefore, a buy strategy would be possible only if the price managed to break above 49.59, even better if it breaks above 49.75. In that case, we possibly will see a bullish move towards 49.81-50.18. 
The same rule applied to the support level. To open a short position, we should see a break below 49.22 and will be better if it breaks below 49.05 as well. Then we might see a bearish move to 48.96 as target and 48.63 in extension.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.