Oil Weekly Forecast 28th Nov – 2nd Dec 2016

Summary:

Expectation that OPEC production deal was unraveling dominated Monday’s Asian trading session. Market participant worries that OPEC producer countries may not agree on a deal to cut output coming Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia said on Friday it will not attend talks on Monday with non-OPEC producer to discuss supply cuts. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that he believed the oil market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene, and that keeping output at current level could therefore be justified.

His comments raised worries that preliminary agreement reached in September that OPEC countries would reduce its production to between 32.5million to 33 million barrels per day may fall apart.

OPEC oil minister meet on Wednesday in an effort to finalize that deal; OPEC also wants non-OPEC producers such as Russia to support the intervention by curbing their output.

The drop in oil prices is hitting U.S. inflation expectation, which has pulled down U.S. Treasury yields, which has finally knocked back the lengthy dollar rally

Source:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN13N01J?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29

Technical Analysis summary

Trading oil this week ahead of the OPEC meeting, market sentiments remain mostly neutral and as do mine.

Brent Daily Chart (Bearish Setup)

Price is currently at role reversal area and 47 psych level. Look for a break below this area and a retest for ideal place to go short with short-term target at next level of daily support or 42 psych level. Fib Projected Target would be at 40 Psych level.

Brent Daily Chart (Bullish Setup)

Price action is making series of HH HL and currently sitting at role reversal area and 47 psych level. I'd drop into smaller tf and look for signs of reversal to go long with target at 50 psych level or 138.2 Fib Target

WTi Daily Chart (Bearish Setup)

WTi is very much similar to the Brent chart I posted earlier. Price is at role reversal area and 46 psych level . Look for a break below this area and a retest for ideal place to go short with target at next level of daily support or 43 psych level. Fib projected target would be at 40 psych level.

WTi Daily Chart (Bullish Setup)

Price action is making series of HH HL and currently sitting at role reversal area and 46 psych level. I'd drop into smaller tf and look for signs of reversal to go long with target at 49 psych level or 138.2 Fib Target.