Crude oil price rebounds following report that US oil supply fell. Also, there is statement from OPEC said that the production cut may be implied, even though analysts warned that economic data from China possibly will erode the bullish momentum.

According to API, US crude inventories fell 3.8 million barrels last week. US Energy Information Administration will release report on fuel inventories on Wednesday.

According to traders, the rebound is also supported by statement from Mohammed Barkindo, the general secretary of OPEC. He is confident about the prospect of production cut following OPEC meeting that will be held in November 30.

OPEC planned to reduce production to the range of 32.5-33 million barrels per day. In September, the production was 33.6 million barrels per day.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday bias for oil currently is bullish. For today, watch the resistance area at 51.26; if it breaks, oil price possibly will continue its rally up to 52.08-52.75. However, note that hourly stochastic and CCI are overbought. Therefore, as alternative strategy you can wait for bullish signal confirmation on a pull-back move to within the support area at 50.57-50.14 to look for bullish signal confirmation with 50.83 as target and 51.26 in extension.

Be very careful if the price managed to break below 50.14 because it possibly will turn the intraday bias into bearish and oil price may fall deeper to 49.88-49.45.

Trading Plan:

– Buy on break of 51.26; target at 52.08 or 52.75
– Buy on bullish signal confirmation within 49.85-49.34; target at 50.99 or 51.50

Oil Chart:

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