Oil price gained on Thursday as market expected that USD will weaken following Federal Reserve Chairwoman’s statement on Friday. Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver a speech titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, in Jackson Hole.

Oil rebound was also helped by ‘buy on dip’ action. Market anticipated the possibility of agreement over oil production limitation at a meeting between OPEC and other oild producers next month.

In addition, data from Genscape shows that oil stock in Cushing Oklahoma declined 313,000 barrels in the week that ended at August 23. This data also gave positive sentiment to crude oil price.

Technical Analysis:

Oil price has pulled back into the Fibonacci resistance area at 47.14-47.58. Hourly stochastic has crossed down and CCI has confirmed bearish signal at the same time. Note that the price currently is moving above 20 MA and 50 MA on hourly chart. However, as long as the resistance at 47.58 remains intact, intraday bias remains bearish. Therefore, we might see bearish move today with target at 46.87 and 46.43 in extension.

Be very careful if the price managed to break resistance 47.58 because it will turun the intraday bias into bullish and possibly will be followed by bullish move up to 47.85-48.29.

Trading Plan:

Sell within 47.14-47.58; S/L @ 47.70, T/P @ 46.87 or 46.43

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