Crude oil prices fell more than 1% in the European session after Iran’s oil minister said that he will not attend the meeting to discuss production freezing in Doha on Sunday, April 17, 2016. He will be replaced by the Iranian Governor of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Production freezing idea was first initiated in February, has gained market attention. Yesterday the International Energy Agency (IEA), revealed that production freezing agreement will only be a small impact on production and demand balance.
Technical analysis shows that oil price currently is under pressure. The price has fallen to below 20 MA and 50 MA on hourly chart, testing the intraday key support at 4-/02. If the price managed to break the support, oil price may fall deeper to 39.45-38.97.
Note that hourly stochastic and CCI are oversold. As alternative trading strategy, you can wait for bearish signal confirmation on a pull-back move to within the Fibonacci resistance area at 40.83-41.32 as signal to go short with target at 40.52-40.02.
You should be careful if the price managed to break above the resistance at 41.32 because it will turn the intraday bias to bullish and possibly will be followed by a bullish move up to 41.68-42.13.