Oil price fell on Monday, triggered by uncertainty of production limitation policy by OPEC.
Meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC last Friday and Saturday did not come up with any deal, worsen by rejection from Iran to follow the agreement. Iran wants to catch up on production after sanction imposed on the country. On the other side, Iraq as one of OPEC members also refuse to join because they need more money to fight ISIS militants.
Market will surely watch OPEC’s meetings until November 30.
Intraday bias for oil remains bearish as it is moving way below 20 MA and 50 MA on hourly chart. Note that the price currently is testing intraday key support at 46.61. Once the support breaks, the chance for deeper bearish move will be wide opened with 46.11 as target and 45.56 in extension.
However, note that hourly stochastic and CCI are in bullish stance. Therefore, I suggest to prepare for possible pull-back move. As alternative strategy, I plan to look for sell signal confirmation on a pull-back move to 47.41-47.91 with 47.11 as target and 46.61 in extension.
Be very careful if the price managed to break above 47.91 because it possibly will turn the intraday bias into bullish and oil price may rise to 48.21-48.71.
Trading Plan: Sell on break of 46.61; target at 46.11 or 45.56
Alternative Plan: Sell on bearish signal confirmation within 47.41-47.91; target at 47.11 or 46.61