Oil price was closed higher in Monday, as supply disruption in Canada and Nigeria remains. WTI was closed at $49.69 in Nymex, which was the highest closing price since July 21 last year. 

Some correction occurs in Monday after Janet Yellen said that it is still possible for the Federal Open Market Committee to raise its interest rate in their meeting this month. WTI pared gain about 1.4% last week since OPEC members failed to reach agreement to freeze production. Weak US non-farm payrolls also weighed oil price because it worsened the outlook of energy demand.

Oil price currently is testing intraday key resistance at 49.88. The resistance actually is very close to this year’s key resistance at 50.19. Therefore, let’s just take 50.19 as our key resistance. If you want to go long, you should wait for a clear breakout above the key resistance with target at 50.31 and 50.67 in extension.
On the other hand, note that hourly stochastic is overbought while CCI is falling from its overbought area. We should be careful for possible technical correction today. In that case, as alternative watch for bullish signal confirmation on a pull-back move to within the Fibonacci support area at 49.28-48.91 with 49.51 as target and 49.88 in extension.
Be careful if the price managed to break support at 48.91 because it will turn the intraday bias to bearish and possibly will push oil price lower to 48.65-48.31.

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