NZDUSD has been trending higher recently, moving above an ascending trend line on its 4-hour time frame. Price found resistance around the .7050 minor psychological level and might be due for another test of the trend line.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the support area is around the 50% to 61.8% retracement levels just above the .6900 major psychological support. In addition, the 61.8% Fib lines up with a former resistance and potential support zone, as well as the 100 SMA.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Stochastic is still on the move down so there may be a bit of selling pressure left while RSI is also heading south so price could follow suit. Once these oscillators reach the oversold regions and turn higher, buying momentum could return and push NZDUSD back up to the previous highs.
Risk appetite has supported the higher-yielding commodity currencies since the start of the week despite the lack of agreement in the Doha meetings. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 3.8% gain in dairy prices, stronger than the previous 2.1% increase. Visitor arrivals rebounded 4.1% after falling by 1.2% in the previous period.
As for the US, the Philly Fed index and initial jobless claims are up for release today. The former is expected to fall from 12.4 to 8.1, indicating a weaker pace of growth in the industry. Meanwhile, the latter could come in at 265K, slightly higher than the previous 253K increase.
Next week, both the US Fed and RBNZ are set to make interest rate decisions. No actual changes are expected from these central banks, although the FOMC might highlight the recent weakness in inflation and consumer spending.