NZDUSD recently broke below a long-term rising trend line, indicating that the previous uptrend might already be over. Price also formed a double top reversal pattern and broke below the neckline, adding confirmation that a downtrend could take place.
However, price found support at the .6700 handle and appears to be making a correction from the selloff. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% Fib lines up with the broken support and the .6900 major psychological mark, which might hold as resistance from here.
In addition, the moving averages are close to the Fib levels and could serve as dynamic inflection points. For now, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA so there’s still a chance that the uptrend could resume, but a downward crossover seems imminent. Stochastic and RSI are both on the move up, showing that buying pressure is present.
The RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that the housing sector poses challenge but policymakers refrained from making any actual adjustments to financial instruments such as the loan-to-value ratio. They did mention that they are looking into other macro-prudential tools for now. RBNZ Wheeler also noted that growth in their trading partners has slowed, possibly referring to the downbeat imports data from China.
Other event risks for this trade include the quarterly retail sales report from New Zealand on Thursday. Headline retail sales could show 1.0% growth compared to the earlier 1.2% increase while core retail sales could rise 1.1% versus the previous 1.4% gain.
As for the US, retail sales reports are also up for release later in the week. Headline retail sales are projected to fall 0.3% while core retail sales could rise 0.6%. PPI data is also due on Friday and the headline figure might show a 0.3% uptick.