The NZD/USD has increased in the first part of the day, but right now is losing altitude, has reached new highs, but bears have taken the lead again and are driving the rate down on the short term, the rate is almost to erase the yesterday’s gains. The price is decreasing somehow surprisingly as the US dollar index has plunged today, the index has fallen below some important support levels. The greenback has received a blow from the Federal Reserve, which has decided to maintain the Federal Funds Rate on hold in yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, the traders have lost the faith in the FED and could push the USD much lower in the coming period. The Federal Reserve has signaled that they could still increase the rate in the coming period if the United States economic figures will come better, but personally I don’t believe that we’ll have a rate increased in 2016 because I don’t think that the US economy and the global events will support a hike at in the coming months. However the US President Election has a major influenced on the FOMC rate decision, the members remain cautious ahead this main event.
The Kiwi has increased in the morning as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to maintain the rate on hold at 2.00%, but has signalled that further cut is possible, the RBNZ has cut the rate in August from 2.25%.
The United States economic data have come mixed today, the Unemployment Claims have dropped unexpectedly, from 260K to 252K, the Initial Claims have come in better compared to the 261K estimate, the greenback has poste humble gains after the US numbers were sent to the public. Moreover the Existing Home Sales has decreased from 5.38 to 5.33M, despite that the economists have predicted an increase to 5.45M, while the US HPI has increased by 0.5%, exceeding the 0.3% estimate.

You can see on the Daily chart that the rate has climbed above the yesterdays’s high from 0.7365 level, but the sellers have stepped in and are leading the rate down, the price has fallen again under the 0.7325 level and is approaching again the confluence area formed by the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork with the Rising Wedge support, the perspective remains bullish as log as the rate is trading above these two major support levels, only a breakout of the Rising Wedge will bring to us a selling opportunity, otherwise the price could approach the 0.7484 swing high. Personally, I’m expecting to see the rate much lower in the coming weeks because the rate has failed to retest the median line (ML) of the ascending pitchfork, signalling an exhaustion.

I’ve added the H4 chart to show you better the price action, the rate has increased, but has failed to reach the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork, maybe will retest the major dynamic support levels before will increase again.

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