NZDUSD has been trading inside an ascending channel pattern on its daily time frame and is currently testing support at the .7100 major psychological level. A bounce off this channel bottom could lead to a move back to the top or until the recent highs at .7400.
On the other hand, a break lower could mark the start of a long-term downtrend for NZD/USD. Price is forming a head and shoulders pattern, which is a classic reversal signal, but it has yet to break below the neckline around .7000-.7050 to confirm the selloff.
Stochastic is heading south so sellers are in control of price action, but the oscillator is nearing the oversold area to show that bearish momentum could be exhausted soon. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside unless a downward crossover takes place.
Over the weekend, a strong earthquake hit Christchurch once more, leading many to speculate that the RBNZ might need to add stimulus again in order to keep the economy afloat. The central bank just cut interest rates by 0.25% in last week’s rate statement and reiterated that a lower exchange rate is needed.
Meanwhile, the US dollar has been gaining ground after the elections as traders are pricing in the potential impact of Trump’s leadership on businesses. In his campaign, the president-elect promised lower corporate taxes, healthcare overhaul, and banking deregulation, which could be positive for equities in the long run.
Up ahead, US retail sales, PPI, and CPI figures are all lined up for the week, including a speech by Fed head Yellen later on. Market watchers are now turning their attention to the December FOMC decision and rate hike expectations could keep the dollar supported. New Zealand has its GDT auction, quarterly retail sales and PPI due.