NZDUSD has been trending lower on its weekly time frame, moving below a descending trend line connecting the latest highs of price action. Price is currently testing the downtrend line around the .6800 major psychological level and has confirmed a reversal candlestick pattern.
This trend line also lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low, adding to its strength as resistance. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This might be enough to take NZDUSD down to the previous lows at the .6200 levels.
In addition, stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions on the weekly time frame and a turn lower could draw more sellers to the mix. RSI hasn’t quite reached the overbought zone but is already moving south, indicating a buildup in selling pressure.
Event risks for this setup include the GDT auction in New Zealand, as a strong rise in prices could spur gains for the Kiwi. However, another sharp drop could suggest that the downturn in the dairy industry isn’t over and that further declines are possible given the weak economic performance of China.
As for the US dollar, the NFP report is coming up later on this week and weak jobs growth could cast doubts on the Fed’s next rate hike this year. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected led by declines in hiring, which suggests that the NFP might disappoint. Still lined up is the ADP non-farm employment change and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.