NZDUSD is forming a descending triangle on its 4-hour time frame, making lower highs and finding support around the .6500 major psychological level. Price just got rejected on its latest test of the triangle resistance and is making its way back towards the bottom of the triangle.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside. At the same time, RSI and stochastic are on their way down, also suggesting that further losses are possible.
Increased selling momentum could even lead to a break below the triangle support and around 250 pips in losses for NZDUSD, as the chart pattern is approximately of the same size. On the other hand, a bounce off the triangle support could mean a move back to the resistance around .6660-.6700.
The risk-off market environment favors further losses for the commodity-driven and higher-yielding Kiwi, especially since the slowdown in China could weigh on global demand and growth. Last week, global equity markets suffered their worst declines in years, as fears of a meltdown weighed on risk appetite.
In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for August showed a sharper contraction in the industry, prompting speculations of lower order volumes from its trade partners, such as New Zealand. Dairy prices showed a bit of a rebound in the country, thanks to Russia’s decision to lift its ban on milk exports.
Event risks for this trade include the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week, as this could confirm whether or not the Fed can be able to hike interest rates within the year. Investors are already projecting that a September rate hike has lower odds, after the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers are still not sure about the pick up in inflation.